Shearer says it was one of the most memorable matches he ever played in and still one of the most discussed. He also remains unconvinced that the better side won.
That is why he sees 1998 as more than nostalgia. For him, it is a warning. England and Argentina matches have a habit of becoming emotional, and emotional matches can turn quickly. Discipline, refereeing and Video Assistant Referee decisions could all matter in a game where one flashpoint may decide who reaches the final.
Argentina bring Messi, experience and survival skills
Shearer does not think Argentina have played outstanding football on their way to this semi-final, but he credits them for scoring excellent goals and repeatedly finding ways to get through difficult moments.
They are also the defending world champions, and while Shearer does not believe this side is as strong as the one that won the tournament four years ago, he sees their experience and game management as major strengths. In plain terms, they know how to make a match awkward. A rare and deeply annoying gift.
Then there is Lionel Messi. Shearer called him “the little genius himself” and described him as arguably the greatest player of all time. This will be Messi’s first match against England, which adds another complication in a fixture that already has plenty of weight.
Argentina’s attack, Shearer argues, still runs through Messi. When they win the ball, their first thought is to locate him. Stopping that rhythm will be central to England’s chances.
How England might try to stop Messi
Shearer suggested one possible approach would be assigning someone such as Djed Spence to follow Messi man-to-man wherever he goes. But he expects England to keep the same structure they have used across their previous six matches.
That would mean no single dedicated marker. Instead, England would likely rely on nearby players closing Messi down quickly whenever he receives the ball, trying to reduce his space before he can turn possession into damage.
Shearer stressed that stopping Messi alone will not be enough. England will need to deal with threats all over the pitch. Still, limiting Messi would significantly improve England’s chances, which is not a tactical revelation so much as a basic safety procedure.
He also said he would not be surprised if the match produces another red card, given the rivalry’s history and the tension of the occasion. His concern is not just player discipline, but also how the officiating and VAR may shape the contest.
England’s own match-winners could decide who reaches the final.
Shearer was also clear that Argentina are not the only side with stars who can decide a match. He praised Harry Kane’s tournament and said Jude Bellingham is playing the football of his life.
Bellingham, like Messi, has won four Player of the Match awards at the tournament, officially branded by Fifa as Superior Player of the Match. It is a title that sounds like it was assembled in a committee room, but the point stands: both players have driven their teams to this point.
Shearer believes Messi and Bellingham are both in the conversation for player of the tournament. He also expects one of them to have a major say in which country reaches the final.
His confidence remains with England. He thinks they will make life harder for Argentina than Argentina make it for them, but he is not expecting anything easy. England’s matches at this World Cup have rarely been comfortable, with the possible exception of the second half of their opening game against Croatia.
Shearer expects a tense night in Atlanta
For Shearer, the stakes are simple. England are two wins from what he called “immortality,” and Argentina are the first obstacle. The history between the countries, including England’s painful defeats in 1986 and 1998, gives the semi-final extra force.
He believes this is the kind of fixture England should want: a World Cup semi-final, against Argentina, with Messi in the way and a final place waiting. It is also exactly the kind of match where fine margins become very large in retrospect.
Shearer will be in Atlanta co-commentating with Guy Mowbray. His message to England supporters is essentially to expect a difficult ride, even if the trip could still be worth it.
Twenty-eight years after his own World Cup chance disappeared against Argentina, Shearer thinks this England side can write a different ending. They just have to make sure that, decades from now, they are not the ones still discussing what might have been.
