The knockout route has been manageable rather than dominant. Switzerland beat Algeria in the round of 32 without major drama, but needed penalties to get past a struggling Colombia side in the last 16. Their attacking output in that match was not exactly persuasive: they did not register a shot on target after the 32nd minute of normal time.
The possible loss of Johan Manzambi is another problem. The 20-year-old, one of the tournament’s breakout players, suffered a knee injury in training. Without his pace, Switzerland’s quarterfinal against Argentina becomes even harder.
Even if they were to eliminate Lionel Messi and company, the semifinal would likely bring England or Norway. A final against France or Spain would be a further escalation. There are upsets, and then there are administrative burdens disguised as football matches.
7. Morocco need their best version against France
Morocco began the tournament with a statement half against Brazil in Group C. For 45 minutes, they looked like a sharper version of the team that reached the semifinals in Qatar. The issue was that they did not finish the job.
They followed that with a 1-0 win over Scotland, then twice came from behind to beat Haiti in their final group match. Against the Netherlands in the round of 32, Morocco trailed late, equalised in stoppage time, forced extra time and advanced on penalties from a match they could have won earlier.
Their best performance came in the last 16 against Canada. Morocco were clinical, scoring three second-half goals to set up a quarterfinal against France.
That is where the context becomes awkward. France knocked Morocco out in the semifinals in 2022. This Moroccan side may not include many of the players who started that match, but the challenge remains substantial. The absence of leading scorer Ismael Saibari also weakens their case.
There are additional layers. Six Morocco squad members were born in France. Teenage midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi captained France under-21s in a European Championship qualifier just 101 days before this meeting, then switched allegiance on the eve of the tournament.
If Morocco beat France, the entire outlook changes. They have recent tournament proof against Spain and Belgium, both beaten in Qatar. A run to the final would make them the first African and Arab country to reach the World Cup showpiece. But first they have to get through the team most likely to win the thing. Minor detail.
6. Belgium improved, but the bracket is unforgiving
Belgium looked closer to eighth on this list a few days ago. Their performance against the United States changed that, at least slightly.
Rudi Garcia adjusted his side, and the attack looked more coherent than it had during the group stage or for most of the round-of-32 match against Senegal. Leandro Trossard was influential, while Kevin De Bruyne started on the bench for the first time in 38 Belgium matches. Jeremy Doku and Romelu Lukaku remained available as late attacking options.
Belgium had started slowly. They failed to beat Egypt or Iran, and only a 5-1 win over New Zealand in the final group game sent them through as group winners on goals scored.
The Senegal match was even more precarious. Senegal should have been out of reach before Belgium’s late recovery. Lukaku and Youri Tielemans scored in the final four minutes of normal time after defensive errors, then Tielemans converted a penalty five minutes from the end of extra time.
Against the United States, Belgium were sharper and appeared energised by frustration over the reversal of Folarin Balogun’s ban. They also benefited from poor defending, which is not a sustainable plan against Spain.
This still feels like the likely endpoint for Belgium’s ageing golden generation. If they beat Spain, France would probably wait in the semifinal. That is not a reward. It is a scheduling notice.
5. Norway have Haaland, efficiency and clear weaknesses
Norway arrived at their first World Cup in 28 years without ever having won a knockout match at the tournament. They have now won two and are chasing a third.
Their progress has been ruthless and disciplined. After beating Iraq in their opening group match, Norway faced what was always likely to be their key game against Senegal. They won 3-2, securing passage to the knockouts as runners-up and allowing coach Ståle Solbakken to rest 10 players against France.
That decision drew scrutiny after a 4-1 defeat to France’s stronger squad, but it still looks sensible. Norway were fresh enough to beat Ivory Coast late in the round of 32, then finished strongly against Brazil in the last 16. Erling Haaland scored twice in the final 11 minutes.
Haaland’s numbers are severe: seven goals from 18 shots in four matches. Martin Ødegaard’s control in midfield has been nearly as important, even if less loudly discussed. The Arsenal player has three assists, level with left-sided substitute Andreas Schjelderup. Corner taker Patrick Berg has two assists of his own.
England’s quarterfinal task is clear. They must defend crosses better, reduce Ødegaard’s influence and manage the physical conditions in Miami. That is a full day’s work.
Norway’s problem is at the other end. They have kept one clean sheet in their past 12 matches, and goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland has already had to do too much. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham will see opportunities against Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjørn Heggem. Expect goals rather than a cautious tactical seminar.
4. Argentina still depend heavily on Messi
Argentina’s route to the quarterfinals has included Algeria, Austria, Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt and now Switzerland. For defending champions, that is not a frightening list. The performances have still been more stressful than the names suggest.
The Albiceleste have leaned heavily on Lionel Messi, now 39, and not just for ceremonial inspiration. He leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals, despite missing two penalties that could already have taken him into double figures.
The last-16 match against Egypt showed both Argentina’s vulnerability and Messi’s remaining capacity to alter a tournament. Argentina trailed 2-0 with 11 minutes left. Messi created the first goal for Cristian Romero, then scored the equaliser four minutes later. Argentina completed the turnaround in stoppage time in controversial circumstances.
Messi’s reaction at full time made clear how close Argentina had come to elimination. Against Switzerland, they will expect to be more controlled, especially if Manzambi is unavailable and the Swiss counterattack loses some speed.
A semifinal against England would be one of the tournament’s major events, given the long and complicated football history between the countries. But Argentina’s starting XI against Egypt was their second-oldest ever at a World Cup, and the defence continues to look exposed. Kane would test it. Haaland would too, if Norway advance instead.
A final rematch with France remains possible. It would revisit the 2022 final, when Argentina won on penalties after a 3-3 draw. France look older, more experienced and highly motivated to settle that account. Messi may still produce something exceptional, but Argentina probably need more than that now.
3. England have a route, if the squad holds together
England were seeded fourth, so a semifinal run was a reasonable expectation before the tournament. The bracket has helped by keeping France and Spain away until the final.
Thomas Tuchel’s side reached the quarterfinals after one of England’s most memorable World Cup wins, beating Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca despite playing 58 minutes with 10 men. It was impressive, exhausting and not a recommended long-term model.
Norway will present a different problem in Miami’s heat. England also have the most obvious injury concerns among the remaining sides. Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Reece James have fitness issues, while Kane and Bellingham would miss any semifinal if booked in the quarterfinal.
The tactical priorities are straightforward: keep Haaland quiet, prevent Ødegaard from running the match and avoid turning set pieces into Norway’s preferred operating system. If England manage that, a fourth World Cup semifinal is within reach.
A semifinal against Switzerland would not intimidate this England group. Argentina would be more complicated, but recent matches against Cape Verde and Egypt showed that Argentina can be troubled by width, speed and counterattacking. That would suit Saka, Anthony Gordon and Marcus Rashford if England get there.
The final is another matter. France knocked England out in the 2022 quarterfinals, and Spain beat them in the Euro 2024 final. Either would arrive with clear advantages. France’s forward line could trouble England’s reshuffled defence, while Spain would demand a midfield performance of high precision and a plan for Lamine Yamal.
2. Spain are built on a historic defence
Spain did not begin the tournament in convincing style, drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde. With hindsight, that result looks more respectable than it did at the time.
Since then, Spain have advanced with a mix of control and patience. They beat Saudi Arabia in the group stage, then Austria in the round of 32. They had to work harder against Uruguay in the group finale and Portugal in the last 16, where a stoppage-time winner made the difference.
Their strongest argument is defensive. Spain have not conceded at this tournament. They have now kept six straight World Cup clean sheets dating back to Qatar 2022, the longest such run in the competition’s history. Through five matches at this World Cup, they have allowed only five shots on target.
At the other end, Mikel Oyarzabal has scored four goals, though he has missed chances that could have put him more firmly in the Golden Boot race. Spain’s midfield and defence look stable, while Lamine Yamal has produced moments rather than full matches of decisive influence.
Spain should be favoured against Belgium, despite Belgium’s improved display against the United States. The bigger test is likely to come in the semifinal against France.
Pau Cubarsí has looked comfortable in central defence, but he has not yet faced a forward group with the pace and variety of Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé. On the other flank, Désiré Doué or Bradley Barcola would test Spain’s right-back, whether Luis de la Fuente selects Pedro Porro or Marcos Llorente.
If Spain reach the final, they may be favourites. Getting there is the part that tends to cause complications.
1. France remain the team to beat
France have the strongest case among the remaining teams. Their attack is deep, fast and varied, while their defence has conceded only two goals in five matches despite not yet facing sustained pressure for long periods.
Their most uncomfortable spell came in the first half of the opening game against Senegal. Mbappé looked short of rhythm, and Senegal missed chances that could have changed the group stage early.
Since then, France have largely controlled their business. They beat Iraq and a heavily rotated Norway side to top the group, then eliminated Sweden before handling a physical round-of-16 match against Paraguay.
Morocco should be a clear step up. But France will trust their forward options. Mbappé is chasing both the Golden Boot and the all-time World Cup scoring record. Olise, Dembélé, Doué and Barcola give Didier Deschamps threats across the pitch. France will also expect to extend their unbeaten record against Morocco to seven matches.
There is one disciplinary note: Olise must avoid another booking, having been cautioned against Paraguay, or he would miss the semifinal.
Spain would pose a more structured challenge, especially defensively. Still, France would back themselves to create enough chances. A final against Argentina or England would carry obvious historical weight, and it would put some of the tournament’s biggest players on the largest stage.
France have not won anything yet, which remains a necessary legal disclaimer in football. But right now, they look like the side with the fewest unresolved questions and the most ways to answer the ones that remain.
